当欧盟外交与安全政策高级代表、欧盟外交事务负责人卡拉斯（Kaja Kallas）日前在爱沙尼亚一场会议上表示，中国的经济模式以及在电池、化工等战略产业的主导地位，是让欧洲“生病的病灶（lesion）”，欧洲需要以“化疗”来治疗时，她或许没有预料到，这番在事实与逻辑上都备受争议的言论，竟引发了强烈反弹。至少有五个欧盟成员国对此表示不满，迫使欧盟委员会迅速澄清，卡拉斯的言论并不代表欧盟官方立场。
社交媒体上，对欧洲经济困境有独立分析能力的评论人士反应更为激烈。有评论者指出，卡拉斯属于一代“活在泡沫之中”的软弱领袖，因执著于对抗俄罗斯与中国，正将欧洲一步步推向深渊。
2024年担任爱沙尼亚总理期间，卡拉斯在全国130万人口中的支持率仅有19%。然而，这位政治人物却被推上代表4.5亿欧洲人民发声的重要职位。外界认为，她之所以获得任命，很大程度上是因为其强烈的反俄立场；而这也被视为欧洲政治体系失能的缩影，即官僚低效、拒绝改革、意识形态挂帅，并与现实脱节。
中国方面对卡拉斯言论的反应耐人寻味。官方并未直接回应，但部分媒体评论认为，她是在对一个主权国家进行“污名化”和“妖魔化”，甚至将中国描绘成“癌症”。
也有评论指出，给竞争对手贴标签，并不能纾解自身所面对的竞争压力。欧洲竞争力下滑的问题，显然无法透过政治姿态来解决。真正需要的是提升产业竞争力、完善科技创新体系，以及增加科研投入。
正如不少欧洲网民所言：“不要把我们的战略失败怪罪于中国。”
然而，欧洲经济面临的另一个、更少被主流媒体讨论的压力来源，同样值得关注。
美国的钳形攻势
在特朗普政府领导下，美国对欧盟经济施加的压力，某种程度上甚至比对中国的更具杀伤力。华府透过结合外部施压与利用欧盟内部脆弱性的策略，推进“美国优先”政策，而欧洲正成为这一政策的代价承担者。
贸易与产业政策：外部挤压
特朗普政府几乎将贸易与产业政策全面武器化，对全球各经济体施压，欧洲也不例外。在欧洲，美国正透过一系列政策措施，对欧盟工业核心与竞争力形成比中国更强烈的挤压。
•关税壁垒：美国对约70%的欧盟出口商品征收约15%的基准关税，而钢铁、铝材及汽车等关键产业则面临高达50%的税率。这使欧盟对美平均关税负担，从2023年的1.47%，飙升至接近10%。
• 不对等协议：所谓的“特恩伯里协议（Turnberry Deal，美国与欧盟协议）”虽避免了全面贸易战，却迫使欧盟接受一项被批评为“投降”的不对等安排。作为换取关税上限的代价，欧盟承诺购买7500亿美元／3.05兆令吉美国能源产品，并向美国投资6000亿美元／2.4兆令吉。换言之，欧盟正用自身资源来支持美国经济增长与化石燃料产业。
• 补贴战争：此前，美国《降低通胀法案》（IRA）以大量补贴吸引欧洲绿色科技投资流向美国。如今特朗普政府又计划全面拆除IRA框架。这种“反向IRA”不仅冲击已根据原有政策在美布局的欧洲企业，也削弱未来对欧洲绿色科技产品的需求。
能源与安全依赖：内部杠杆
美国的第二道钳形攻势，是利用欧洲的关键依赖关系来加强控制力。
• 从俄罗斯依赖转向美国依赖：欧盟逐步放弃对俄罗斯天然气供应，转而依赖美国液化天然气（LNG）。此举不但未提升能源安全，反而让美国得以将能源作为战略杠杆。7500亿美元能源采购承诺，更可能将欧洲长期锁定于成本较高的化石燃料体系之中，削弱其气候目标。
• 安全保障换取经济让步：美国也利用欧洲对北约与美军保护的依赖，迫使其在贸易谈判中作出让步。“特恩伯里协议”正是这种不对称关系的体现——在关税威胁与安全承诺可能缩减的双重压力下，欧盟被迫接受不利条件。
• 乌克兰和平的经济代价：一旦俄乌战争走向和平，欧盟可能需要承担超过5000亿欧元／2.3兆令吉的重建费用。与此同时，美国计划将对乌克兰援助从2024年的190亿美元／773亿令吉，大幅削减至2026年的4亿美元／约16亿令吉。这意味著更多财政压力将落在欧洲纳税人身上，进一步挤压本已有限的经济发展资源。
美国数码霸权钳制
欧洲在数码领域的依赖程度更加严重。目前，欧洲超过80%的数码产品、服务以及云端基础设施来自非欧盟供应商。而现代经济最具价值的上层架构——人工智能、量子计算、云端架构与数据平台——几乎完全由美国科技巨头主导，包括微软、谷歌、亚马逊与Meta等企业。
资本与创新外流
欧洲始终难以培育能够成长为全球巨头的科技企业。2008年至2021年间，近30%的欧洲“独角兽企业”（估值超过10亿美元／约40亿令吉的新创企业）将总部迁往海外，其中绝大多数流向美国，以获取更充裕的创投资金与资本市场支持。
脆弱欧洲下的双重夹击
特朗普政府的钳形战略之所以特别有效，在于它发生在欧洲结构性弱势加剧之际。自2008年以来，美国国内生产总值（GDP）累计增长达87%，而欧盟仅增长13.5%。
无论在能源成本、生产力还是创新能力方面，欧洲都已明显落后。在此背景下，美国最新一轮施压，很可能使欧洲经济进一步边缘化。然而，许多欧洲反华政治人物与主流媒体，却更倾向于将中国塑造成主要威胁，而对美国带来的压力保持沉默。
总结
欧洲经济正站在十字路口。一方面，美国在数码科技、金融资本及前沿技术领域保持压倒性优势；另一方面，中国则持续向高端制造与价值链上游攀升。面对来自两大经济体的夹击，欧洲若要避免持续衰落，就必须以更清醒、非意识形态化的视角，重新审视自身经济困境的根源。更重要的是，欧洲需要争取真正的战略自主权，建立一个更加独立、更具韧性的发展模式，以应对日益碎片化的全球秩序。然而，不少分析人士认为，在现有欧盟政治领导层之下，要实现这一目标恐怕并不容易。
林德宜《谁是欧洲更大威胁：中国或美国？》原文：Which Is The Bigger Threat To Europe: China Or U.S.
When EU foreign policy chief and head of diplomacy declared at a conference in Estonia that China's economic model and dominance in strategic sectors such as batteries and chemicals was the "lesion" making Europe "sick” and that Europe needed to treat it with “chemotherapy”, she was probably unprepared for the feedback to her unprecedented factually and logically incorrect rhetoric. It elicited an internal backlash within the EU with at least five countries protesting. The European Commission quickly clarified that this did not represent its official position.
The response from social media commentators providing independent analysis of the economic crisis that some Europe countries are facing was harsher. One commentator pointed out that she is part of a generation of incredibly weak leaders “living in a bubble” and driving Europe “into the abyss” with their obsession on confronting Russia and China.
When prime minister of Estonia in 2024, Kallas had an approval rating of 19% in her country of 1.3 million people. Her appointment to a high position speaking on behalf of a continent of 450 million people has been described as owing to her virulent anti Russia stand; and evidence of the “train wreck” of incompetence in Europe built around inefficient bureaucracies and a system resistant to change, ideologically biased and cut off from reality.
China's response to the Kallas' speech is interesting. There was no official response. However news articles characterized Kallas's statements as "labeling" and "distorting a sovereign state as a 'cancer'". Others have noted that sticking labels is not the right medicine to alleviate competitive pressure. It is obvious that Europe falling behind cannot be resolved by political posturing. Europe needs to enhance its competitiveness, foster its technological innovation system, and increase spending on research and development. In other words, as many in Europe’s social media put it: don’t blame China for our strategic failures.
It is also important to check out other less reported pressure points on the European economy.
The American Pincer
Under the Trump administration, the US has acted as an even more powerful pincer movement on the EU's economy than China's, squeezing it from several strategic directions. U.S. strategy combines external pressure with the exploitation of internal EU vulnerabilities to advance "America First" at Europe's expense.
Trade & Industrial Policy: The External Squeeze
The US administration has fundamentally weaponized trade and industrial policy against the rest of the world with no exceptions. In Europe, it is creating a web of policies that are squeezing the EU's industrial core and competitiveness harder than China.
· Direct Tariff Walls: The US imposed a baseline tariff of around 15% on about 70% of EU exports, with key sectors like steel, aluminum, and automotive facing higher duties up to 50%. This raised average tariffs from 1.47% in 2023 to nearly 10%.
· Asymmetric "Deal": The "Turnberry Deal" avoided full-scale war but forced the EU into an asymmetric agreement that critics call a "capitulation". In exchange for tariff caps, the EU is effectively financing US domestic growth and fossil fuels through a commitment to buy $750 billion in American energy and invest $600 billion in the US.
· Subsidy War: The prior Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) pulled EU clean tech investment to the US with generous subsidies. The Trump administration now plans to dismantle the IRA entirely. This "reverse IRA" hurts European green-tech companies already heavily invested on past IRA promises as well as future demand for EU green tech products.
Energy & Security Dependency: The Internal Lever
A second prong of the pincer weaponizes Europe’s critical dependencies to tighten US control over its economy.
· From Russia to US Energy Dependency: By shifting from Russian pipeline gas to US LNG, the EU has reduced energy security, allowing the US to use energy as a “strategic lever”. The promised $750 billion deal locks the EU into higher-cost fossil fuels, undercutting its climate goals.
· Security Blackmail for Trade Concessions: The US has exploited Europe's military dependence to extract trade concessions. The "Turnberry Deal" was a direct result of this imbalance, where the threat of tariff and security withdrawal forced the EU to agree to unfavorable terms.
· Economic Fallout from a Forced Peace: A potential peace in Ukraine would saddle the EU with an immense financial burden, estimated at well over €500 billion for reconstruction. This would divert funds from economic development, especially as the US plans to cut aid drastically from over $19 billion in 2024 to just $400 million in 2026.
American Pincer of Digital Hegemony
Europe relies on non-EU providers for over 80% of its digital products, services, and cloud infrastructure. The upper layer of the modern economy - Artificial Intelligence, quantum computing, cloud architecture, and data platforms- is almost entirely dominated by American hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta).
The Capital & Innovation Drain
Europe struggles to scale its own tech companies. Between 2008 and 2021, nearly 30% of European "unicorns" (startups valued over $1 billion) relocated their headquarters abroad - the vast majority moving to the US to access venture capital.
Pincer on a Vulnerable Europe
The Trump administration pincer is especially effective because it catches the EU at a moment of structural weakness. Since 2008, US GDP has grown 87%, compared to just 13.5% in the EU. Europe lags in energy, productivity, and innovation. The latest squeeze is likely to lead to an even greater marginalisation of the European economy. However Europe's anti China leaders and media prefer to remain mute on this while seeking to demonize the China threat.
Summary
Europe's economy is at a crossroads. Trapped in a structural squeeze by dual economic pincers, with the United States dominating the digital, financial, and frontier technology spheres, and China moving up the value chain into high-end manufacturing, it needs a non ideological and clear eyed understanding of how and why its economy is in its current position whilst pushing for the strategic autonomy to forge a more independent and resilient future in a fragmenting global order. More than a few analysts are of the opinion that this is impossible with the present political leadership.
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