9月3日，华盛顿智库“新美国安全中心”（CNAS）印太安全项目副主任雅各布・斯托克斯（Jacob Stokes）在一场线上活动中发布该机构最新报告《超级大国与通用人工智能》（Superpowers and AGI）时，呼吁美国政府考虑采取外交、间谍活动、网络战以及军事手段，以阻止中国率先实现通用人工智能（AGI）。
CNAS并不是一家普通的美国智库。其是一家位于华盛顿特区、具有影响力的跨党派智库，专门研究美国国家安全与国防政策。该智库成立于2007年，西方媒体称赞它具有“务实、以数据为基础的研究”特色，并将其形容为“不同政府之间的意识形态桥梁”，其人员主要由前美国高级国家安全及情报官员组成。
这份报告究竟受到多大重视？
CNAS有关中国人工智能对美国威胁的报告，受到美国联邦政策制定者、国会以及现任特朗普政府的高度重视。CNAS并不被视为体制外声音，而是当前美国科技政策的思想架构者。
美国政策制定者对CNAS这项研究报告重视程度——例如其报告中提及的“红线”、“对抗性蒸馏”以及“超级大国与通用人工智能”等事项——已在美国政府多项行动中得到体现。
这份最新报告公开讨论先发制人的军事或动能打击，例如把数据中心列为打击目标，反映出华盛顿界定人工智能竞赛的方式正出现令人担忧的升级。也就是说，人工智能竞争正从经济与技术竞争，逐步转变为一项攸关国家存亡的国家安全风险。通用人工智能（AGI）如今被视为一项可与核武均势相提并论的国家安全问题，并可能需要军事行动加以应对。
目前，我们可以从以下方式观察这通过人工智能／人工智能（AGI／AI）动态如何逐步展开。
美国阵营：立法与政策措施
在美国，对失去科技领导地位的恐惧，已促成共和党与民主党之间形成共识，支持遏制、制造业回流以及更积极的出口管制政策。
A.出口管制与“卡脖子”式资本限制
硬件与算力封锁：美国商务部（透过工业与安全局）持续收紧对先进人工智能加速器的出口限制，例如高端英伟达和超微（AMD）晶片、半导体制造设备（EUV及先进DUV光刻系统），以及高频宽记忆体（HBM）。
对外投资审查：行政命令以及联邦立法推动限制美国风险投资和私募股权基金向中国人工智能、量子计算以及半导体企业提供资金。
供应链去风险化：美国《晶片与科学法案》下投入数百亿美元，用于美国本土晶圆厂建设，包括英特尔、台积电亚利桑那州厂以及三星德州厂，以降低东亚供应链所带来的脆弱性与风险。
B.国防整合与军事行动协同
人工智能国家安全指令：联邦政策要求国防机构将人工智能整合到情报、自主武器以及指挥与控制体系之中，同时确保美国国内基础设施免受外国网络威胁。
从智库到战争推演：华盛顿主要智库提出的方案，经常被纳入五角大楼的情境规划。针对高风险AGI情境，从进攻性网络破坏，到军事行动的应急规划，都显示中国的人工智能基础设施，在冲突模型中正日益被视为“关键军事目标”。这些攻击目标也可能包括台湾的半导体产业以及台积电本身，以阻止这些资产落入中国手中。
C.多边联盟与标准
“小院高墙”战略：华盛顿正与欧盟、日本、韩国、荷兰以及台湾等盟友合作，建立相互协调的出口管制制度，以限制中国取得全球科技供应链中的关键技术。
全球人工智能标准：通过具有法律约束力的框架提案以及国际峰会，旨在为前沿人工智能的部署、安全与防护机制建立西方规范。
中国：反制措施
北京将美国的遏制行动视为压制中国合法经济发展与国家主权的一种企图。作为回应，中国采取了以自主自强与非对称能力为核心的广泛战略。
A.全端自主可控（“国产化”）
本土算力加速：中国正投入大量国家补贴，用于国内半导体设计与制造，例如华为昇腾（Ascend）生态系统以及中芯国际的晶圆制造业务，以降低对西方晶片的依赖。
算法与架构优化：面对硬件限制，中国研究人员高度重视开源基础模型、参数高效微调，以及高效率计算架构，以便从较旧或非最前沿的硬件节点中榨取最大的性能。
B.资源配置与国家级基础设施
“东数西算”工程：北京已对全国算力基础设施进行集中规划，在能源丰富的西部省份建设大型数据中心枢纽，以最大限度提高效率并建立能源韧性。
具身人工智能与产业融合：中国意识到纯软件大型语言模型竞赛可能出现延迟，因此利用自身强大的制造业基础，在“具身人工智能”（embodied AI）领域取得领先，包括机器人、工业自动化、自主物流以及智能电网系统。
C.地缘政治与供应链反制措施
关键矿产控制：中国利用其在镓、锗、锑以及稀土等关键原材料方面近乎垄断的地位。这些原材料对先进电子产品以及军事科技至关重要，中国透过针对性的出口限制，作为对西方制裁的反制手段。
数码丝绸之路扩张：透过“一带一路”倡议（BRI），中国向全球南方国家输出数码基础设施、云计算以及电信网络，建立一个独立于美国平台之外的替代性科技生态系统。
D.国防与基础设施强化策略
主权云与实体防护：中国媒体与分析人士将美国有关攻击数据中心的言论视为一种致命威胁的升级。作为回应，关键数码基础设施正日益被视为国防资产——进行实体加固、地理分散部署，并透过防空网络与网络安全协议加以保护。
结论
目前，美国的战略重点是遏制、拒绝提供算力，以及推动制造业回流，以维持其科技领先地位。中国的反制战略则依靠自主国产化、资源杠杆，以及迅速将人工智能部署到现实世界的制造业与机器人领域。这种局面将持续多久，取决于美国那些主张强硬对抗的“战争鹰派”以及政策制定者。
美国主流公共政策讨论开始纳入对中国实施军事打击的选项，凸显人工智能已经从一个商业领域，转变为美国战略地缘政治优先事项以及核心不安全感的领域。美国对伊朗的军事打击，就是一个警告，说明强硬政策可以多么迅速地演变成军事行动。
同样明显的是，目前要透过人工智能／通用人工智能的合作与协作，造福世界其他地区，仍是一个遥不可及的梦想。
与此同时，美国方面的这种动态，已经为军事选项打开大门——这种军事选项可能是有意启动的，也可能源自过度自动化的指挥系统，进而触发失控式升级，或者源于自动化误判。无论是人为误判（先发制人式打击），还是机器误判（自主升级），都会将“末日钟”进一步推向一个对美国以及世界其他地区而言具有灾难的结局。
林德宜《美国对中国人工智能不安可引向核战》原文：America’s AI Insecurity Against China May Lead To A Nuclear War
In touting his agency’s latest report, Superpowers and AGI, Jacob Stokes, deputy director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Centre for a New American Security (CNAS), at an online event on September 3, called for the US government to consider the feasibility of diplomatic, espionage, cyber and kinetic measures to prevent China from achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) first.
CNAS is no ordinary American think tank. It is an influential Washington, D.C.-based bipartisan think tank specializing in United States national security and defense policy. Established in 2007, Western media laud it for its “pragmatic, data-driven research” and its role “as an ideological bridge between administrations”, staffed heavily by former high-ranking national security and intelligence officials”.
How Seriously Are Its Reports Taken?
CNAS reports regarding the China AI threat to the USA are taken extremely seriously by federal policy makers, Congress, and the current Trump administration. CNAS is not seen as an outside voice, but as an intellectual architect of current American technology policy.
The gravity with which American policy makers treat recent CNAS findings—such as their reports on “Red Lines”, “Adversarial Distillation”, and “Superpowers and AGI”—has been demonstrated across several US government actions - see (https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/superpowers-and-agi)
This latest public discourse calling for preemptive military or kinetic action—such as targeting data centers—reflects an escalating and dangerous shift in how Washington frames the AI race: moving from economic and technical competition to treating Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) as an existential national security risk comparable to nuclear parity and requiring military action.
For now, we can see this AGI/AI dynamic unfolding in the following way.
The American Sphere: Legislative and Policy Measures
In the U.S., fear of losing technology leadership has resulted in a Republican and Democrat consensus favoring containment, reshoring, and aggressive export controls.
A. Export Controls and "Choke-Point" Capital Restrictions
Hardware & Compute Blockades: The U.S. Department of Commerce (via the Bureau of Industry and Security) has continuously tightened restrictions on the export of advanced AI accelerators (such as high-end Nvidia and AMD chips), semiconductor manufacturing equipment (EUV and advanced DUV lithography systems), and high-bandwidth memory (HBM).
Outbound Investment Screening: Executive orders and federal legislative pushes restrict U.S. venture capital and private equity from funding Chinese AI, quantum computing, and semiconductor firms.
Supply Chain De-risking: The CHIPS and Science Act channels tens of billions of dollars into domestic fab construction (Intel, TSMC Arizona, Samsung Texas) to remove vulnerabilities and risks in East Asia.
B. Defense Integration and Kinetic Alignment
National Security Directives on AI: Federal policies require defense agencies to integrate AI into intelligence, autonomous weapons, and command-and-control frameworks while ensuring domestic infrastructure is secured against foreign cyber-threats.
Think Tank to War-Game Pipeline: Proposals from major Washington think tanks frequently are integrated into Pentagon scenario planning. Options ranging from offensive cyber-sabotage to kinetic military contingency planning for high-stakes AGI scenarios signal that Chinese AI infrastructure is increasingly classified as "critical military targets" in conflict modeling. This also may include Taiwan’s semiconductor industry and TSMC itself as targets to prevent it from falling into China's control.
C. Multilateral Coalitions & Standards
The "Small Yard, High Fence" Doctrine: Washington is working with allies (such as the EU, Japan, South Korea, Netherlands and Taiwan) to create aligned export regimes to restrict China’s access to global technology supply chains.
Global AI Standards: Legally binding framework proposals and international summits aim to establish Western norms for frontier AI deployment, safety, and guardrails.
The Chinese Sphere: Counter-Measures
Beijing views U.S. containment actions as an attempt to suppress its legitimate economic development and national sovereignty. In response, China has adopted a broad strategic posture centered on self-reliance and asymmetric capabilities.
A. Full-Stack Self-Reliance ("Indigenization")
Native Compute Acceleration: China is pouring state subsidies into domestic semiconductor design and fabrication (e.g., Huawei’s Ascend ecosystem and SMIC foundry operations) to bypass reliance on Western chips.
Algorithmic & Architecture Optimization: Faced with hardware constraints, Chinese researchers focus heavily on open-source foundation models, parameter-efficient fine-tuning, and efficient compute architectures to squeeze maximum performance out of legacy or non-frontier hardware nodes.
B. Resource Allocation & State Infrastructure
"Eastern Data, Western Computing" Project: Beijing has centralized its national computing power infrastructure, building massive data center hubs in energy-rich western provinces to maximize efficiency and build energy resilience.
Embodied AI & Industrial Integration: Recognizing potential delays in pure software LLM races, China leverages its dominant manufacturing base to lead in "embodied AI" (robotics, industrial automation, autonomous logistics, and smart grid systems).
C. Geopolitical & Supply Chain Counter-Measures
Critical Mineral Control: China leverages its near-monopoly on critical raw materials (gallium, germanium, antimony, rare earths) essential for advanced electronics and military tech, imposing targeted export restrictions to retaliate against Western sanctions.
Digital Silk Road Expansion: Through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China exports its digital infrastructure, cloud computing, and telecommunications networks across the Global South, creating an alternative tech ecosystem independent of U.S. platforms.
D. Defense and Hardening Tactics
Sovereign Cloud & Physical Hardening: Chinese media and analysts view U.S. talk of targeting data centers as an escalation of a lethal threat. In response, critical digital infrastructure is increasingly treated as defense assets—hardened physically, dispersed geographically, and protected with air defense networks and cyber-security protocols.
Conclusion
The U.S. strategy for now focuses on containment, compute denial, and domestic reshoring to maintain a technological lead. China’s counter-strategy relies on indigenization, resource leverage, and rapid deployment of AI into real-world manufacturing and robotics. How long this will last depends on American war warriors and policy makers.
The inclusion of military strikes on China in mainstream American public policy discourse highlights how AI has transitioned from a commercial sector into a core domain of US strategic geopolitical priority and insecurity. The military strike against Iran serves as a warning of how a hardline policy can quickly become military action.
For now too, it is clear that cooperation and collaboration on AI/AGI to benefit the rest of the world is an impossible dream.
Meanwhile, the dynamics on the American side has opened the door to a military option deliberately embarked upon, or an over - automated command system triggering runaway escalation, or an automated miscalculation. Both human miscalculation (preemptive strike) and machine miscalculation (autonomous escalation) advance the Doomsday Clock towards a catastrophic outcome for the US and the rest of the world.
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